There’s no way getting around it. There will be another war in Gaza. The deep-rooted problems bedeviling the Palestinian people and Israel have not gone away. The cease-fire just buys more time–until the next escalation begins and death and destruction are rained down on Gaza. The only question is when that next spasm of violence breaks out. Hamas and the other factions need to re-arm. Israel’s southern communities and people in Gaza want a breather.

Yes, Hamas, the other factions and the Palestinians in Gaza are celebrating the end of a 50-day assault. They are calling it a victory. I would be celebrating too if I were in Gaza. It’s true that Palestinian fighters inflicted unexpected and heavy losses on Israeli soldiers, caused economic pain and terrified the south, and they did wring concessions from Israel on the blockade. But they are minimal concessions at best, and there is no way to enforce them. It’s a re-run of the truce that ended the 2012 conflict, but with yet more death and displacement than that last assault.

"The ceasefire terms look very much like, if not identical to, the November 2012 agreement, including a lack of implementation mechanisms," the Palestinian analyst Noura Erakat said in a statement sent to reporters by the Institute for Middle East Understanding. "This makes the ceasefire unreliable at best, and fails to prevent another attack on the Gaza Strip in the near future."

The cease-fire agreement reportedly promises an easing of the blockade, a blockade that is one of the deep roots of why the war broke out. Reuters has the details, though it’s telling there is no official document to refer to. Israel has apparently agreed to open its border crossings with Gaza to allow the flow of goods in, though it’s likely Israel will only let in humanitarian aid and reconstruction materials–and not allow exports and freedom of movement for the people of Gaza. And yet even the flow of reconstruction materials is something Israel can easily reverse. Who will make sure Israel keeps the border open for good? Nobody has the will or desire to. Not Egypt’s virulently anti-Hamas government, and not the U.S.

Next month, there will be more talks on issues like demilitarizing Hamas–which is not going to happen–and an airport and seaport for Gaza, which is also not likely to happen in the near-term. That these demands won’t amount to anything also increases the chances for more war.

The rest of the reasons why violence rocked Gaza remain. It is still cut off from the world, and, more importantly, from the West Bank. Israel is still bent on destroying any semblance of Palestinian unity. Hamas is still deeply isolated, though their stature has risen because of their violent resistance–the only language that Israel understands. And, of course, the occupation continues. This is a recipe for more blood-letting.

The repeated assaults on Gaza will keep happening absent a sea-change in the Western political landscape that sends a message to Israel that the state will be isolated unless it halts its occupation and blockade. It is true that each Gaza war brings that day of reckoning closer and closer. Each missile that falls on a Palestinian home or school is fuel for the boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement. But that day of reckoning is far off. And until that day comes, there will be more suffering in Gaza and in Israel. So get ready for the next round in Gaza.