November 16, 2008

BAGHDAD — Iraq’s political leaders held a high-level meeting on Saturday to gauge support for a security agreement that will determine the future role and presence of American forces in Iraq before crucial votes in the cabinet and Parliament.

But the most powerful Shiite bloc in Parliament, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, did not attend, and the meeting ended without any clear public resolution.

The agreement, which Iraq and the United States have been negotiating for months, faces a vote by the cabinet, which is expected on Sunday, and then a vote in Parliament, which has not set a date for it. The agreement will replace the United Nations mandate authorizing American military operations in Iraq, which expires on Dec. 31.

The unexpected no-show of the Supreme Council, a close ally of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, was confirmed by two Iraqi lawmakers, one of whom attended the meeting. Other lawmakers expressed concern and said they were puzzled by what it meant.

The meeting follows months of contentious political maneuvering by many of Iraq’s political factions, amid a political climate in which many Iraqi leaders are trying to demonstrate their nationalist credentials by insisting on major concessions from the Americans.

Mr. Maliki is not expected not send the pact to Parliament until he is sure that he has the votes to pass it.

The decision of Iraq’s 37-member cabinet, essentially a microcosm of the Parliament, is expected to be a good indicator of whether the agreement will pass. The assembly has not yet announced the date of its vote, but it is scheduled to go into recess on Nov. 24.

Several groups have expressed their support or disapproval, but not enough to predict an outcome of the vote.

Mr. Maliki’s Dawa party supports the pact. Haidar al-Abadi, a senior figure in Dawa, said, "This is the only deal on the table, and we cannot afford to leave the country in such a poor condition on Dec. 31."

Abbas Bayati, a Turkmen member of the Shiite-dominated governing coalition, indicated that the coalition members were increasingly likely to sign it.

"We find that the American response is positive and good, a foundation for establishing a good future relationship," he said, referring to the recent acceptance by the United States of several Iraqi demands.

Although much of the draft agreement has yet to be made public, principal elements include a timeline for American troop withdrawals from Iraqi cities by next June and a withdrawal of combat troops from the country by the end of 2011.

Of the other major national blocs, Mahmoud Othman, an independent member of the Kurdish Alliance, said that the leaders of the most prominent Kurdish parties were enthusiastic supporters of the deal.

The Kurds control more than 50 seats in the 275-member assembly.

Other parliamentary parties and alliances are keeping their options open. Iraq’s most influential Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has indicated that he would support the security agreement, but only if it received a broad national consensus.

The Sunni Tawafiq bloc, which controls more than 40 seats, has called for the pact to be put to a national referendum.

"We were supporting the negotiations, but when we submitted our suggestions to the prime minister, he didn’t take any of them," said Ayad Samarrai, deputy general secretary of the largest party in Tawafiq. He added that the cabinet should explain every paragraph in the pact to the Parliament in public, so the public could understand what is at stake. "We think a referendum is the best course."

The Bush administration has pressed the Iraqis to reach an agreement for most of the year, making its own concessions on deadlines for troop withdrawals and immunity for American soldiers. On Saturday, a spokesman expressed hope that a vote was imminent.

"We think this is a good document that serves both Iraqis and Americans well," the spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe, said. "We remain hopeful that the Iraqi government will conclude this process soon."

Also on Saturday, a car bomb exploded in a car dealership in the northwestern town of Tal Afar, killing nine people and wounding 40, according to Iraqi police and United States military officials.

Tal Afar is about 40 miles northwest of Mosul in Nineveh Province, and is split among Turkmens, Sunnis and Shiites and once was a place of almost relentless violence.

Khisro Goran, the deputy governor of Nineveh, blamed Sunni insurgents for the attack and said it was evidence of "too much hatred between Sunnis and Shiites."

Another car bomb exploded Saturday afternoon in a square near Iraq’s National Theater in central Baghdad. Three people were killed and 25 wounded, according to an Interior Ministry official, who did not want to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.

Around the country on Saturday, tribal groups held demonstrations in support of the prime minister. The so-called tribal support councils, which Mr. Maliki has been organizing since early summer, are a mix of Sunni and Shiite tribes that support the central government.

Mr. Maliki has been courting tribal leaders and Sunni Arab nationalists in an effort to shore up government support, especially in areas where there is a heavy Kurdish influence.

The tribal support councils are seen by many Kurds, especially, as an attempt by Mr. Maliki to project his personal power.

In Hilla, about 3,000 council members marched on the city’s center.

The police also reported Saturday that an American military helicopter crashed in eastern Mosul on Saturday evening after hitting a television broadcasting tower. Witnesses said that they saw two people, who were engulfed in flames, falling from the helicopter.

The United States military confirmed that an OH-58 Kiowa helicopter "made a hard landing" when it hit wires in Mosul, and that two crew members were killed. The event was not combat-related. American-led forces quickly secured the area, a military spokesman said in an e-mail message.

Reporting was contributed by Stephen Farrell, Campbell Robertson, Riyadh Mohammed, Abeer Mohammed and Suadad al-Salhy from Baghdad; Iraqi employees of The New York Times from Samarra, Hilla and Mosul; and Steven Lee Myers from Washington.