March 31, 2009

Maliki sent out his army to capture Awakening leaders no longer payed by the U.S.:

The arrest of Raad Ali, who helped the Americans stabilize the west Baghdad neighborhood of Ghazaliya, came to light Sunday, five days after the Iraqi army picked him up in a midnight raid, his aides said.

The U.S. is actively helping in this:

A combined force of American and Iraqi Army troops and National Police descended on Fadhil, a Sunni neighborhood and former insurgent stronghold in central Baghdad, and arrested the head of Fadhil’s Awakening Council, Adil al-Mashhadani, on terrorism charges, according to Maj. Gen. Qassim Atta, spokesman for the Iraqi security forces in Baghdad. He said firefights broke out afterward.

This might well reignite a civil war, but with the Iraqi army now more capable, the chances are against the insurgents.

Parviz thinks that this is part of a U.S.-Iran rapprochement.That is certainly possible. The U.S. may have decided to defer to Iran in Iraq for cooperation in Afghanistan and to generally lower level the hostility level. 

On the other side it seems that the U.S. wants to leave Iraq and that alone is motivation enough. To leave Iraq in even greater chaos is not in U.S. interests. It is better to have a strong government there than a weak government and permanent civil war that could escalate into neighbor countries. 'Cleaning up' the opposition while the U.S. is still there in full force is thereby a necessity on its own.

In Afghanistan the U.S. now tries to repeat some aspects of the 'Awakening' movement by arming and paying local forces at the town level. Those forces should note how the U.S. is now betraying such 'allies' in Iraq. It is likely to happen to them too.